Mystery pack odds, explained
Updated 27 October 2026
Three numbers tell you almost everything about a pack: the chance of each item, its average return, and how often an open is worth at least what you paid. All three come straight from the odds table on the pack page.
- Example pack
- $5.00
- Finance Bro
- Average open
- $4.25
- Return
- 85%
- Win-back chance
- 10%
A full odds table
Finance Bro costs $5.00 and holds 12 items. The last column is each item's value times its chance: what it adds to the average open.
Celsius 12-pack$2.04
Excel shortcut cheat sheet$0.60
Unvested RSUs$0.30
"Let's circle back"$0.30
LinkedIn Premium · 1 month$0.16
Patagonia Better Sweater Vest$0.15
On Cloud 5$0.14
Apple AirPods Pro 3$0.14
Saint Laurent Silk Tie$0.13
Peloton Bike+$0.11
Rolex Datejust 41$0.09
Bloomberg Terminal · 1 year$0.08
The cheap, likely items carry most of the average; the big prizes add only cents because they are so rare.
| Item | Value | Chance | Adds to average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg Terminal · 1 year | $31,980.00 | 0.00026% | $0.08 |
| Rolex Datejust 41 | $10,500.00 | 0.00089% | $0.09 |
| Peloton Bike+ | $2,495.00 | 0.0043% | $0.11 |
| Saint Laurent Silk Tie | $308.00 | 0.043% | $0.13 |
| Apple AirPods Pro 3 | $249.00 | 0.055% | $0.14 |
| On Cloud 5 | $150.00 | 0.096% | $0.14 |
| Patagonia Better Sweater Vest | $129.00 | 0.11% | $0.15 |
| LinkedIn Premium · 1 month | $40.00 | 0.41% | $0.16 |
| Celsius 12-pack | $22.00 | 9.28% | $2.04 |
| Excel shortcut cheat sheet | $2.00 | 30% | $0.60 |
| "Let's circle back" | $1.00 | 30% | $0.30 |
| Unvested RSUs | $1.00 | 30% | $0.30 |
Sum of the last column: $4.25, the average value of one open.
Average return and house edge
Divide the average open by the price: $4.25 ÷ $5.00 = 85%. That is the pack's average return, sometimes called RTP. What is left, 15%, is the house edge: what the site keeps on average.
Because a win sells back at its full listed value, the return is real money, not store credit. On sites that buy items back at 80% or 90% of their value, the true return is lower than the odds table suggests.
Win-back chance
Add up the chances of every item worth at least the price. In Finance Bro that is 10%: about 1 in 10 opens pay back the $5.00 or more. The other opens give a cheaper item. A pack with a high win-back chance feels steady; one with a low chance and a huge top prize swings hard.
Cheap packs and expensive packs
The return is set per pack, not by price. What changes with price is how likely the big items are.
Dollar iPhone$1.007.7%
Aura Farm$5.002%
Apple Bite$10.009.8%
Diamond Hands$25.0010%
Habibi$100.0013.8%
Share of opens worth at least the price. The average return is the same for all of them.
| Pack | Price | Average return | Win-back chance | Top prize | Its chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar iPhone | $1.00 | 85% | 7.7% | $1,899.00 | 1 in 25,000 |
| Aura Farm | $5.00 | 85% | 2% | $9,500.00 | 1 in 63,452 |
| Apple Bite | $10.00 | 85% | 9.8% | $4,023.90 | 1 in 12,500 |
| Diamond Hands | $25.00 | 85% | 10% | $99,000.00 | 1 in 255,754 |
| Habibi | $100.00 | 85% | 13.8% | $335,000.00 | 1 in 160,772 |
One shop pack near each price step, as listed now.
Reading "1 in N"
A 1 in 1,000 chance does not mean the item comes once every thousand opens. Each open is independent: after 999 misses the next one is still 1 in 1,000. Over 1,000 opens there is about a 63% chance of seeing it at least once, not 100%.
Questions
- What is a good return for a mystery pack?
- Most paid packs on KRUNA are built around 85%. Compare the return together with the sell-back rate: a high return with a low sell-back rate can be worth less than it looks.
- Is the odds table the one the draw uses?
- Yes. The chances on the pack page are the same weights the roll is picked from, and an opened pack's table is frozen so old opens can still be checked against it.
- Where can I compare every pack?
- The house-edge page lists every shop pack's average return and edge, computed from its live odds table.
